KEYNOTE ADDRESS TO THE 4TH NILE BASIN DEVELOPMENT FORUM
NAIROBI, KENYA,
6 OCTOBER 2014
PROF. MARK MWANDOSYA
Let me at the very outset admit that you have done
me honour, inviting me to give a Key Note address on the occasion of 4th
Nile Basin Development Forum, an august assembly of policy makers, scholars,
researchers, and other stakeholders of the
Nile Basin. We are here because we are bound together by one river, the
Nile, to emphasize the ‘benefits of cooperation’. I put emphasis on the word
emphasize because we all believe, I hope, that the benefits of cooperation far
outweigh the disadvantages, if any. As such you probably could have saved the
taxpayers of riparian nations by fielding a question: ‘do you believe in
cooperation among riparians of the Nile Basin?’ The answer to that referendum
question would be a resounding ‘yes’. That is why I had some reservations when
I was initially asked to restrict my remarks to cost – benefit analysis of
cooperation among Nile Basin States. Benefits far outweigh and outshine costs
that I sought another sub-theme ‘The River Nile: A Bridge for Cooperation and Unity’. The term “bridge” is perhaps an
engineer’s perspective of the economist’s cost-benefit analysis. That being
said, we are here because of cooperation, to strengthen cooperation, and to
explore other avenues for further cooperation among the riparians and between
riparians and non-riparians of the Nile. That we meet here today testifies to correctness of the vision of
those among you and others not present here who initiated and participated in
the Nile 2002 series of conferences, of which the Nile Basin Development Forum
is the successor. Participants to the fora have approached challenges of
cooperation from a bird’s eye view, scientifically and without bias, such that
those among us vested with shaping the political and legal framework for
cooperation have come to depend on the outcome of your deliberations. You have
played a key role as a ‘bridge’ between politics, law and the physical and
scientific realities.
Herodotus, a Greek philosopher who
lived 5 centuries Before Christ, once described Egypt as ‘A gift of the River
Nile.’ The Nile was then, and it continues to be, a source of fascination,
curiosity, and myth. The existence of a large corpus of knowledge about the
Nile and its Basin, making the Nile Basin the most widely studied transboundary
river basin in the world, is such that what could aptly be termed the Herodotus Dictum, can be
paraphrased thus: ‘Africa is a gift of the River Nile’.
Nile Basin countries are home to 437
million people or 41 percent of the population of Africa, this is in accordance
with the 2012 estimates. The population of the Nile Basin is 238 million, or 54
percent of all the Nile countries, or a significant 22 percent of the
population of the entire continent of Africa. It is estimated that by the year
2030 the population of the Nile Basin countries will have grown to 648 million.
Out of these 111 million will be Egyptians and Ethiopia’s population will have
grown to 132 million. The scramble for water in the Nile Basin will be far
larger than that obtaining now.
The Nile is the longest river in
Africa and in the world. By so observing
, I do not belittle the claim by some researchers that a new source of the
Amazon River has been discovered, making it the longest river, 6800 km compared
to our Nile, 6718 km long, measured from the source of the Nyabarongo River in
Rwanda to the Mediterranean Sea. You may wish to recall that prior to the
springs which are the source of the Nyabarongo, the source of the Nile was
considered to be the Ruvironzo River in Burundi, which gave the length of the
Nile 6611 km. Have not we gone a long distance since the area between the first
cataract and the Elephantine, was considered to be the source of the Nile?
It seems to me that finding the source
of the Nile, and other transboundary rivers is an unfinished business. By
whatever findings, the Nile is a very
long river.
All major rivers on earth flow from
north to south. The River Nile , in all its splendour and majesty, flows from
south to north. As it does so it traverses a diversity of weather and climatic
conditions, with rains averaging 1800 mm a year in Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania
to a mere 80 mm of annual precipitation
in most areas of Egypt. It connects 11 African nations; Burundi, Rwanda,
Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, The Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan,
Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt. Not much reference is made to the fact that
Central African Republic is a riparian state representing a small area of the Nile Basin.
A physical bridge in the built
environment is designed and constructed by engineers. In his infinite wisdom
and knowledge almighty God ‘designed’ and
constructed a subsurface
structure, the Nile. Its “traffic” is the everlasting flow of water from the
source of the Nyabarongo, from Lake Tana, from the mountains of Ethiopia, from
the Mau forest in Kenya, from the source of the Bahr el Arab, from the sources
of the Pibor, the Sobat, the Atbara through natural dams (lakes), natural
filters (sudd swamps) and cataracts, as natural regulators, concluding its 6700
km plus journey via the Rosetta and the Damietta through the delta into another
natural reservoir, the Mediterranean Sea.
The Nile, together with its
tributaries can be conceived of as physically connecting eleven nation states
(or twelve if the Central African Republic is taken into account). It is a
“bridge” of sorts. Engineers construct bridges as means to connect people, to
transport goods and to facilitate
trade just as the River Nile has done
over the millenia. The challenge that we face as riparians of the Nile, and as
participants to the 4th Nile Basin Development Forum in particular,
is how to use God’s gift to Africa, the Nile, as a bridge to facilitate
cooperation and eventual unity of the
people of the Nile Basin.
A people united by the river is what
can be said of the inhabitants of Nile
Basin from time immemorial, at least
until the Conference of Berlin of 1884- 1885. Convened by the then
Imperial Chancellor of Germany, Otto von Bismarck, the conference of 14 states
including the United States in order to partition Africa, the conference was to
have far reaching consequences on the Nile Basin, as will be seen a little
later in the sequel.
The Nile has always been a “bridge”
across cultures and religious faiths. From the Egyptian mythology we learn of the
existence of many Gods. Much worshipped was Hapi, the God of annual flooding of
the Nile, sometimes referred to as the “father of the Gods”. Hapi was revered
as the God who maintained the balance of the universe as a harmonious system.
Among his many titles were: Lord of the river bringing vegetation, and Lord of fishes, birds and marshes. If the environment is
defined as encompassing air, land and water; plant and animal life including
human life; and other factors that influence the lives of human beings,
animals, plants, and other micro
organisms, then clearly this definition is derived from the ancient Egyptians,
from their perception of the father of gods, Hapi.
The Nile was and continues to be the
bridge across the Abrahamic faiths, Judaism, Christianity and Islam. Legend has
it that Abraham (Ibrahim) and his wife Sarah left Ur, in present day Iraq, for
Haran (present day Turkey), Damascus (present day Syria) and Jerusalem (present
day Israel and Palestine), on a directive given by God. He was later to settle
in the Nile Valley, in Egypt or Mekka depending on which holy book one reads.
The story of Joseph (Yusuf) who was to become number two in the household of
Pharaoh, and his father Jacob (Yakobo) and his 11 brothers, is about the Nile
Valley and periodic floods and droughts. We are also reminded about the life of
Moses (Musa) from the time he was rescued from a basket floating on the River
Nile, to leading the exodus from Egypt, receiving the 10 commandments from God, wandering about
the desert for 40 years, and his eventual demise in present day Jordan, after
his legendary declaration “I have seen the Promised Land...”. Another encounter
between faith and the Nile River is the arrival in the Nile valley of Jesus
(Issa bin Mariam) and his parents Joseph (Yusuf) and his mother Mary (Mariam) as refugees after the
declaration by King Herod that all children below the age of two, born in
Bethlehem (in present day Palestine) be killed.
The Nile Valley has also been a
“bridge” across ages in respect of knowledge and scholarship. The pyramids of
lower Egypt built 4 millenia ago are a testimony to a rich, enlightened and
powerful civilization. These perfect triangular-sided structures still retain
their majesty. The 223 pyramids of ancient Nubia are double the number of
pyramids in Egypt. Built during the ancient Nubian Kingdom of Cush, 7 centuries
BC, they are a monument to the greatness of a kingdom centered around Meroe,
which stretched from the Sudan to the
Delta in Egypt. Excavations by archeologists in the Sudan have discovered one
of the world’s oldest civilisations that flourished 3 millenia BC around Kerma
and it was Black Africa’s oldest civilisation. In her treatise in the Identity
of ancient Egypt (Kemet), Cynthia Perry of Purdue University remarks thus
‘’-----Results of the evidence reviewed
suggest that ancient Egyptians were true Africans prior to their intermingling
with other races.’’ Contrary to the portrayal by many scholars that the
ancient Egyptians were caucasians, Cheick Anta Diop’s claim was that ancient
Egyptians were Black. I do not wish to take sides in the scholarly debate that
has gone on since Cheick Anta Diop of
Senegal published his famous treatise in the 1950s. My submission is that the
Nile has always served as a bridge linking a mix of peoples in the course of
history, and it has contributed to rise and fall of kingdoms and knowledge and knowhow.
The Nile as a “bridge for unity” was
also conceived from a hydrological and
engineering perspective when the concept of the Century Storage System was
promoted by the British during the early 20th century. Initially
proposed by Engineer William Garstin and later refined by Yusuf Simaika, and Harold Hurst, among others, the plan was about the
management of the entire Nile Basin as one hydrological unit. The plan had a
political logic. It did fit very well with the hegemony of Britain, based on
the imperative to control the entire
basin, and motivated variously by the cotton crop trade, the control of Suez
canal, and to keep at bay the possible influence of the French and Italians,
and to ensure the availability of Nile waters to Egypt in accordance with its
“natural and historic” rights.
The Century Storage concept was laid
to rest with the advent of the Sadd-el Aali project. The Nile Valley Authority
which was mooted in the British House of Commons as a last ditch attempt to
counter the construction of Aswan High Dam, never came to pass.
Disasters have a way of turning into
“silver linings”. The unusually high precipitation of 1960-1961 in the
equatorial lakes region led, in 1961 the Governments of Kenya , Uganda,
Tanzania, working together under the East African Nile Waters Coordinating
Committee to initiate consultations with Sudan, Egypt, the WMO and UNDP in
order to conduct hydrometeorological surveys of Lake Victoria, Kyoga and Albert
(hydromet). Agreement to this effect was entered into in 1967 by Egypt, Kenya,
Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, with the aim to evaluate the water balance of the
Lake Victoria catchment in order to control and regulate the lake levels. Later
on in 1972, Burundi and Rwanda were to join Hydromet, followed by Zaire(The
Democratic Republic of Congo) in 1978. The Hydromet Survey Project was the
first initiative of independent riparian states that could truly be described:
The River Nile: Bridge for Cooperation and Unity.
The Nile was later to be a bridge
that would lead the Kagera Basin states: Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania to the
formation of the Organization for the Management and Development of the Kagera
Basin (KBO), in August 1977. Uganda acceded to the treaty in 1981. For
geopolitical reasons an excellent dream was not to be realised. The Rusumo
bridge and direct telecommunication between Burundi and Rwanda and Uganda,
Kenya and Tanzania, however, testify to the modest success of the Akagera, a
tributary of the Nile, as a bridge for cooperation among countries that later
become members of the East African Community.
The Undugu Group was yet another
attempt to use the Nile as a bridge for cooperation. It was founded in November
1983 by Egypt, the Sudan, Uganda, Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo) and The
Central African Republic as an informal group to promote political, economic,
social and cultural cooperation among the Nile Basin countries, in order to
ensure an integrated and harmonious development of natural resources of the basin. Burundi and Rwanda and Tanzania
later joined the Undugu Group. Kenya and Ethiopia decided to remain as
observers. The Group was disbanded in
1993 without achieving its objectives.
At the meeting of Ministers
responsible for Water in the Nile Basin, and with oversight over the Hydromet
Survey Project, held in Kampala, Uganda, in December 1992, it was decided to
strengthen, and make more formal the cooperation built upon the foundation of
the Project. The Technical Cooperation for the Promotion of Development and
Environmental Protection of the Nile Basin- TECCONILE, was yet another pillar
in the bridge for cooperation among the riparians of the River Nile Basin. For,
its founder members who met in Kampala included Egypt, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania,
Uganda and Zaire(Democratic Republic of Congo). The rest of riparian states
were observers to TECCONILE. Through its Nile River Basin Action Plan,
TECCONILE laid the foundation for the inception of the Nile Basin Initiative
(NBI). The NBI inherited the administrative format of TECCONILE, its
Ministerial Council (COM) and Technical Advisory Body(TAC). NBI also inherited
the TECCONILE projects, including the now famous Project D3 whose main
objective was to lay the foundation for an agreement for permanent cooperation
among the Nile Basin States. TECCONILE lasted until 22 February 1999 when the
Council of Ministers transformed TECCONILE into NBI, at its extraordinary
meeting that was held in Dar es Salaam. TECCONILE and NBI have been pillars in
the bridge for cooperation and hopefully eventual unity to be built upon the
formation of the Nile Basin Commission.
We meet here today as a result of the
existence of this pillar,the NBI. That it still does exist, 15 years after its
inception, is indeed a tribute to the foresight of the Ministers responsible
for water who met in Dar es Salaam in
February 1999. It was supposed to be and it is a transitional
arrangement towards a more permanent
Nile Basin Commission. That the NBI has survived 15 years is also an
illustration of the challenges that face multilateral cooperation regarding
transboundary rivers.
Upon its expected demise the NBI will
reincarnate as the Nile Basin Commission. That transformation will depend upon
6 member states ratifying or acceding to the Agreement on the Nile River Cooperative Framework
Agreement(CFA). Two member states, Rwanda and Ethiopia have already ratified
the CFA.
With regard to the United Republic of
Tanzania, the Council of Ministers (Cabinet) has already approved that the CFA
be ratified. The last constitutional requirement is for the Parliament to give
the final approval. The matter is an item on the agenda of the November 2014
session of the Parliament.
As a pillar in the bridge for
cooperation and unity among the Nile Basin states, the CFA is built on a firm
foundation. It is a culmination of the aspiration by independent nations to
cooperate in the optimal and sustainable use of the Nile waters, an aspiration
which began with the Hydromet Survey Project 50 years ago. It is also the
closure of almost 10 years of negotiations.
This pillar, CFA, is built upon 14
fundamental principles; three of which are most relevant to the theme of
this Forum: Cooperation among the states of the River Nile Basin on basis of
sovereign equality, territorial integrity, mutual benefit and good faith in
order to attain optimal utilization and adequate protection and conservation of
the River Basin and to promote joint efforts to achieve social and economic
development; the principle of equitable but reasonable use of the waters of the
Nile; and the principle of preventing the causing of significant harm to other states of the Nile River Basin.
By concluding the CFA on the basis of
the aforementioned principles, among others, Nile Basin states have decided
start building a bridge across the Nile.
The right to equitable but reasonable
use of water in transboundary river basins is a rejection of the principle of
absolute territorial integrity that is usually upheld by lower riparians in
order to exercise hegemony over the use of water in a particular basin. It is a
legal responsibility that riparians use water in a manner that does not cause
significant harm to other riparians in transboundary waters. This
responsibility largely falls on upper riparians and is a negation of the
principle of absolute territorial sovereignity or the Harmon Doctrine which
would otherwise be invoked by upper riparians.
Initially propounded by the
International Law Association the right to equitable but reasonable use is
enshrined in Article 5 and Article 6 of the United Nations Convention on the
Law of Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses (Hereinafter the Convention).
The obligation on the riparians of not causing significant harm is the subject
of Article 7 of the Convention.
In respect of the River Nile Basin
and other transboundary watercourses, the principle of equitable and reasonable
use and the obligation to cause no harm are the basis of cooperation among
riparians. Once agreed upon and appropriately formulated in the CFA, the rest
of the Articles merely elaborate how to achieve these aspirations and formulate
mechanisms to implement the cooperation. The CFA has gone farther. It
has in Article 14 propounded a novel but I am advised not so legal a principle but an important concept of Water Security.
However emotive the matter may be, it is my contention that the difference
among riparians of the Nile Basin on Water Security are more apparent than
real. For, on the basis of the doctrine of
Community of Interest, no riparian state can harness or use the waters
of the River Nile in a manner that can significantly threaten the Water
Security of any other nation. Besides ,the CFA is a Framework Agreement. It is
not about the allocation of water rights,a matter to be the subject of a
possible protocol to the CFA.
In the spirit of the Nile being a
bridge for unity, the riparian states of the Nile Basin have decided to
cooperate on the basis of agreement on all the 45 Articles of the CFA with the
exception of Article 14 (b). This Article however, has not been struck out. It
is annexed to the CFA with a declaration that the issue be resolved by the
proposed Nile River Commission within six months of its establishment. We had
Egypt in mind when we formulated this Annex to Article 14(b) to the CFA.
Article 14(b) of the CFA reads as
follows: not to significantly affect the
water security of any other Nile Basin State. An alternative formulation
has been proposed by Egypt: not to
adversely affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other
Nile Basin State.
Furthermore, at the closure of the
negotiations for the CFA it was observed that from the experience gathered in
many multilateral agreements, there is a long time lag between conclusion of
negotiations and ratification and or accession by member states. Member states
have varying constitutional requirements to effect ratification or accession.
It was decided, to the best of my recollection, that the time between the CFA
being open for signature and the Framework Agreement enters into force on the sixtieth day following the
date of the deposit of the sixth instrument of ratification or accession, be
used by member states to continue consultations regarding Article 14 (b).
Should any understanding be reached, it would be taken into account by the Nile
River Basin Commission in accordance with the Annex on Article 14 (b) of the
CFA. It is incumbent upon the Chairs of the NBI Council of Ministers a position
being presently held by H.E. Moatez Moussa Abdallah Salim, Minister of Water
Resources and Electricity of The Republic of the Sudan, to spearhead
consultations on this important matter.
The CFA is an important foundation or
a cornerstone upon which riparians of the River Nile have decided to formalise
cooperation. The Nile River Basin Commission will be the tool to implement the
legal framework for cooperation. Challenges that face us now and in the future
relate to, among many others, the environment of the basin and the response to
climate change.
Protection and conservation of the
Nile River Basin and its ecosystems, an important principle of the CFA, is made
operational specifically by Article 6; and additionally by Article 7, on
Regular exchange of data and information; Article 9, on Environmental impact
assessment and audits; Article 11, on Prevention and mitigation of harmful
conditions; and Article 12, on Emergency situations. In the case of the Nile
River Basin, protection of the environment is an obligation for Basin states to
protect water sources and catchment areas in order to ensure sustainable flow
of the River, for the use of the present generation and for the benefit of
future generations. These Articles particularly oblige the Upper Riparians to
conserve and protect the Basin for their own benefit but additionally for the
benefit of lower riparians. One environmental challenge to the River Nile
Basin, the water hyacinth Eichhornia crassipes,
an invasive species, is an environmental nightmare. First seen in Egypt in the
1890’s, the water hyacinth spread along the full length of the River Nile Basin
such that by 1990’s it had polluted much of the coastline of Lake Victoria. It
has had devastating effects on water transport, fish and fishing, biodiversity,
fresh water supplies, health, evapotranspiration, hydroelectricity, and
tourism. It has affected the social and economic life and lifestyles of the
people of the Basin. Knowledge and knowhow acquired over a century by lower
riparians,Egypt and Sudan in tackling the menace of the water hyacinth will be
invaluable to the Basin states. In the
unlikely event that cooperation in all other areas should fail, cooperation
among riparians of the Nile Basin in the protection of the environment of the
basin would be absolutely essential.
A specific environmental challenge
that requires cooperation among Nile Basin States is that of climate
variability and climate change. The atmosphere is a global common. Likewise and
in respect of the River Nile Basin, the atmosphere is a Basin common.
Carbondioxide emissions are the main anthropogenic cause of global warming and
therefore climate change.
Climate change scenarios for the Nile
Basin suggest that over the next 50 to 100 years, there will be an increase in
temperature of between 10C to 30C. According to
the Energy Information Administration of the United States, the 10 Nile Basin
states emitted 229.2 million tonnes of carbondioxide in 2009, with Egypt’s
emissions being 81.1 percent of this total. The per capita emissions ranged
from 2.44 tonnes for Egypt and a low of 0.04 tonnes for Burundi. To make sense
of these numbers, emissions of carbondioxide by Basin states are a mere 2.62
percent of global emissions. The per capita emissions are 2.44 tonnes for Egypt
and 0.16 tonnes for Tanzania. These numbers have to be compared with 9.18
tonnes for South Africa, 5.83 tonnes for China, and 17.67 tonnes per capita for
the US. There is therefore very little scope for the mitigation of greenhouse
gas emissions by Basin states. Efforts by Nile Basin states should therefore
collectively be directed towards adaptation to climate change and to climate variability.
The Nile discharge has been subject
to substantial variability during the last century. For example the maximum
discharge of 120 bilion cubic meters occured in 1916 and a minimum yield of 42
bilion cubic meters was observed in 1984. The mean annual discharge between
1900 and 1954 was 84 bilion cubic meters. These variations are an indication of
the sensitivity of the Basin to such factors as changes in the orbit of the
earth, global ocean temperature anomalies and movement of the Inter-Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Basin wide studies will be required and data
continually observed, obtained, collated, updated, and assessed in order to
strengthen the capacity of the riparians to forecast climate variability and
climate change impacts. The vulnerability of the River Nile Basin to the
impacts of climate change is increasingly becoming a real concern. The impact
is gradually being felt in the water sector as springs and streams dry up and
the level of dams and lakes decrease. Floods in some areas and drought in other
areas, all water related and climate related events, are becoming even more
frequent. The vulnerability is becoming even more severe as impacts are felt in
biodiversity, especially to wildlife and changes in their migration patterns
and the consequences on the tourism industry and the economy. The phenomenon is evolving of large scale migration of livestock keeping
communities in search of water sources and suitable grazing land which is also
suitable for agriculture. Land use conflicts will become more prevalent than before.
Even if global emissions are
constrained to a 450 ppm pathway and warming contained to 2°C, there will be
significant effects from climate change that will require Basin societies to
adapt. The five most notable adaptation
challenges include increased droughts, sand encroachments, desertification,
increased salinity of coastal, riverine and ground water resources, flood risk,
more storms and of higher intensity, soil erosion and increased sedimentation,
coastal flooding from sea level rise, and shifts in agricultural patterns. The impacts will vary greatly country by
country. On the whole at levels below 2°C rise, studies give confidence that
with sufficient foresight and investment, the adaptation challenges can be met. In particular the challenges can be met
through better planning, investment in climate resilient infrastructure, better
disaster response capabilities, and new approaches to risk management and
insurance. However, countries most at
risk to climate change in the Nile Basin are among the poorest and least developed
and need to plan for increased financial requirements, and scientific
(including increased research into local climate impacts) and technical capacity building. In addition, changes will be required in such
a way that baseline development planning takes into account integrated
strategies for climate resilient development.
Failure to invest sufficiently in country adaptation could result in
increased regional and Basin security challenges associated with conflict over
resources, large-scale migration, and emergence of failed states.
The theme of this address has been
The River Nile: A bridge for Cooperation
and Unity. The keywords are
Cooperation and the eventual Unity of the Nile Basin, based on the will to “promote integrated management, and harmonious
utilisation of the water resources of the basin”. Cooperation and unity are an antithesis of
conflict and war. Based on the data collected by Oregon State University there
have been more agreements on transboundary water use than the occurrence of conflicts.
In the last 50 years over 200 treaties have been concluded. In the same time
frame only 37 incidences of conflict that have led to war have been recorded.
Of these 30 have been in the Middle East. I submit that based on the CFA and
the express desire of the people and of the Basin and Nile Basin States to
cooperate, the Nile will be a bridge for cooperation and eventual unity and not a source of conflict and war.
By way of closure, let me thank the
organisers of this forum to invite me to address this august assembly. Having
had the humble opportunity to coordinate and speak for my colleagues, Ministers
responsible for Water from upper
riparian states of the Nile Basin in the negotiations that led to the signing
of the CFA, I can confirm the truth of the old adage that “once one drinks the
waters of the Nile, he or she will always return to the Nile”. I am also
mindful of the contribution of giants of the stature of Engineer Kamal Ali
Mohamed of the Sudan and Dr Mahmoud Abu Zaid of Egypt to the process of
cooperation in the Nile Basin upon whose shoulders we stood see a little
farther, if I may be permitted to paraphrase Isaac Newton.
This address has been about the Nile,
the Nile is about water. According to the Holy Book Almighty God said “From Water,
We have given life to all creatures (Wajalna Min Almaa Kulu Shayyin Hai
(Al-Anbiýa 21:30))”.
May the Grace of God be with us in
our deliberations.
Wasalaam Aleykum Wa rehmatullah wa
Barkatu.
I thank you
©Mark Mwandosya
 |
| Members of the Nile Basin Council of Ministers. 4th Nile Basin Forum. |
©Mark Mwandosya
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